Around the Block | 12
Bitcoin‑Only Macro & Technical Recap
Bitcoin is no longer digesting.
What began as a structured mid-cycle correction has now evolved into a confirmed weekly trend shift. Monthly structure has broken key shelves and lost the rising 34 EMA. Weekly structure has violated the macro higher-low that defined the bull run. Momentum is no longer cooling. It is expanding.
And yet, beneath price, the network remains firm. Hashrate holds near record territory. Miner stress is rising but capitulation remains absent. Bitcoin has slipped in global market cap rank, but it remains a trillion-dollar macro asset.
This issue examines the structural break on the weekly timeframe, the mature corrective leg on the monthly chart, Bitcoin’s relative weakness versus gold, and whether the fundamentals confirm stress or resilience.
This is a transition phase.
Structure first. Narratives second.
None of this is financial advice.
Don’t trust, verify.
Let’s dive in.
TL;DR
Monthly structure has shifted into a mature corrective leg with downside momentum intact. Price is testing the $60K–$65K macro demand zone, with the $55K–$58K region near the rising 50 MA as the next major magnet.
Weekly bull structure has been broken. The loss of $73K–$75K confirms a trend transition from higher lows to lower lows. Weekly trend is now down until proven otherwise.
BTC/Gold has entered a confirmed monthly downtrend. Momentum is expanding into macro support with no reversal signal yet.
Hashrate remains structurally elevated near 1 zettahash. Network security is consolidating, not deteriorating.
Mining costs have fallen, but price has fallen faster. Margin compression has intensified, though no miner capitulation is visible.
Bitcoin’s market cap has rotated to ~$1.39T and rank #13 globally. Rank compression reflects cycle reset, not structural decline.
Primary scenario: continued pressure toward the $55K–$60K region until clear absorption appears.
The secular uptrend remains intact on the highest timeframe, but structural repair is now required.
The Technicals
Monthly
Bitcoin has printed a large bearish expansion candle, extending the corrective leg and breaking decisively below the $75K–$78K structural shelf. The rising 34 EMA has now been lost, shifting it from support to resistance.
Key Levels
• $102K–$110K: Rejection origin
• $58K–$74K: Current high-timeframe decision zone
• 34 EMA (~$75K): Now overhead resistance
• 50 MA (~$58K): Rising macro anchor
Structure
The monthly chart has transitioned from pullback to full corrective expansion.
This is no longer a shallow retracement. It is a mature corrective leg.
That said, price is now entering a high-confluence macro demand zone formed during the 2024 consolidation. The secular uptrend remains intact unless the $55K–$57K region fails on a monthly close.
Candlestick Behavior
The current candle is a long-bodied bearish continuation bar with minimal lower wick.
Sellers remain in control.
There is no capitulation signature yet.
Momentum is impulsive, not exhausted.
Large red candles into demand can precede either a climax low or multi-month basing. Neither confirmation has appeared yet.
Pattern Context
The post-high structure has resolved as a descending breakdown. Measured move projections align with the $60K–$65K region now under test.
Trend & Moving Averages
• 8 EMA: Bearish and well above price
• 34 EMA: Broken, now resistance
• 50 MA: Rising below, next structural magnet
Trend state: Confirmed monthly correction with downside momentum intact.
The 50 MA near $58K has historically acted as cycle support during major bull market corrections.
Final Assessment
Bitcoin is deep into a mature corrective phase. Structural shelves have broken sequentially, and downside momentum remains active. The next major decision zone lies between $57K–$65K.
Until clear absorption appears, the path of least resistance remains lower with a primary scenario of a continuation toward the $55K–$60K region near the rising 50 MA. However, price is now approaching historically meaningful macro support within an intact secular uptrend.
Weekly
Bitcoin has broken key weekly structure.
The decisive loss of $73K–$75K confirms that the macro higher-low anchoring the bull cycle is no longer intact. This is no longer a controlled correction. It is a confirmed trend transition on the weekly timeframe.
Key Levels
• $121K: Cycle high rejection
• $90K–$94K: Former demand turned supply
• $74K–$78K: Broken macro higher-low
• ~$60K–$65K: Current structural test zone
Structure has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows. That is objective.
Candlestick Behavior
Recent weekly candles show:
• Large real bodies
• Minimal lower shadows
• Sequential continuation bars
This is momentum-driven liquidation, not absorption. There is no hammer, no compression, and no reversal signal. Sellers remain in control.
Reversal requires visible rejection or multi-week basing. Neither is present.
Trend & Momentum
• 8 EMA sharply down
• 34 EMA rolling over
• 50 MA declining and overhead
• Price riding the lower Bollinger Band
The weekly timeframe is now in an active downtrend with volatility expansion.
Volume
Volume has expanded during the decline, confirming participation and distribution. However, there has not yet been a clear capitulation spike with strong rejection. That remains the key signal to watch.
Structural Implications
The break of $74K ends the prior weekly bull structure. This does not automatically mean a multi-year bear market, but it does mean a new base must form.
The current battle zone sits at $62K–$65K. Failure there opens the $55K region near long-term trend support, the 200WMA.
Weekly Outlook
Primary: Continuation toward $55K–$58K if price remains below $73K.
Stabilization: Strong reclaim of $73K and compression above $65K.
Structural Repair: Weekly reclaim of $91K–$94K.
Final Assessment
The weekly bull structure has been broken. This is no longer a pullback inside an uptrend. It is a confirmed weekly trend shift.
Until exhaustion and structural reclaim appear, the weekly trend remains down.
Bitcoin / Gold
BTC/Gold has expanded decisively into the 12–15 macro demand zone, and this is not stabilization. The current monthly candle is a large bearish continuation bar closing near the lows, confirming momentum acceleration into support.
The breakdown below 18–20 and failure to reclaim it marks a confirmed range failure and structural transition into a monthly downtrend.
Candlestick Structure
This is a strong continuation candle:
• Large real body
• Minimal upper shadow
• Close near the lows
There is no hammer, no engulfing, no reversal signal. This is directional pressure, not exhaustion. A true reversal would require either a long lower-shadow month or a strong bullish reclaim. Neither is present.
Trend & Volatility
Price has expanded through the lower Bollinger Band and closed outside it, signaling volatility expansion rather than compression. Historically, this can precede short-term mean reversion, but not immediate macro reversal.
Moving averages confirm regime shift:
• 8 EMA sharply down
• 34 EMA rolling over
• 50 MA flattening
• 200 MA now overhead resistance
Alignment is fully bearish on the monthly timeframe.
Structure
Overhead resistance now sits at:
• 18–20 (former range floor)
• 26–27 (mid-range)
• 35–38 (macro top)
Below 12 opens risk toward the 9–10 prior cycle base.
Bottom Line
This is a confirmed monthly downtrend with momentum expanding into macro support. A short-term bounce is possible due to extension, but:
Trend reversal is unconfirmed.
Base formation is not present.
Continuation risk remains elevated if 12 fails.
BTC/Gold is now in structural repair territory.
The Fundamentals
Hashrate
Bitcoin’s hashrate recently pushed to a historic milestone near 1 zettahash per second (1,000,000,000 TH/s) before pulling back modestly. Even after the decline, network security remains structurally elevated and far above prior-cycle baselines.
This is not collapse. It is normalization.
Hashrate surged during the expansion phase and is now cooling as miner margins compress alongside price. The pullback reflects efficiency filtering and competitive adjustment, not capitulation. The long-term trend remains firmly upward, and the proof-of-work moat continues to strengthen.
In short, price is correcting. The network is not.
Average Mining Cost
As of early March 2026, the average cost to mine one Bitcoin has declined to approximately $88,641, down from $96,530 in last month’s report. However, Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen more sharply, now trading near $69,720. As a result, the mining cost-to-price ratio has widened further to 1.35, up from 1.25 previously, with the 30-day moving average rising to 1.26 from 1.14.
This marks a meaningful deterioration in miner economics.
While production costs have eased, revenue compression has intensified. Price weakness has outpaced efficiency gains, pushing the network deeper below production equilibrium. Margin pressure is now materially higher than it was one month ago, particularly for higher-cost operators exposed to sustained sub-cost pricing.
The decline in mining costs reflects ongoing efficiency improvements and network difficulty adjustments. However, those improvements are not large enough to offset the magnitude of the recent price drawdown. The imbalance is now revenue-driven rather than cost-driven.
Despite the widening gap, there are still no confirmed signals of miner capitulation. Hashrate remains structurally elevated, block production is steady, and network participation has not meaningfully rolled over. Historically, periods where Bitcoin trades materially below average production cost have functioned as consolidation zones rather than systemic stress events.
In prior cycles, similar environments resolved through price recovery or prolonged basing, not immediate miner exit. Current conditions reflect heightened cyclical pressure within a corrective phase, not structural weakness in Bitcoin’s underlying network.
Top Assets By Market Cap
As of early March 2026, Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits near $1.39 trillion, ranking #13 globally with price around $69K. The drop from last month reflects continued downside in the corrective phase, not structural irrelevance.
Yes, Bitcoin has slipped in rank. That is what mid-cycle drawdowns look like.
Gold has expanded further to roughly $36.8 trillion, and silver remains elevated near $4.9 trillion, capturing traditional safe-haven flows. Large-cap equities continue to dominate the top of the leaderboard. But Bitcoin remains firmly in the trillion-dollar class, still larger than many global corporations and sovereign-backed giants.
Rank compression is cyclical. In prior bull markets, Bitcoin has temporarily ceded position during deep corrections before reclaiming leadership in the next expansion. The current move from #12 to #13 reflects price volatility, not a loss of long-term relevance.
Bitcoin is consolidating valuation inside a cycle reset. Structural significance remains intact.
Bitcoin News
Highlights from the month of February
U.S. Treasury: U.S. Government Cannot Deploy Taxpayer Funds to ‘Bail Out’ Bitcoin
*Friendly reminder that Bitcoin doesn’t need bailouts.
Michael Saylor Says Strategy ($MSTR) Will Lead Global Bitcoin Effort Against Quantum Threats
Goldman Sachs Discloses $1.1 Billion Position in Bitcoin ETF Holdings
Bitcoin’s Lightning Network Surpasses $1 Billion in Monthly Volume As Adoption Grows
Morgan Stanley Has Future Plans for Bitcoin Trading, Lending, and Custody
If you have any suggestions, feel free to reach out to me on X. I’m always looking to improve and add value in ways others might enjoy—just keep it Bitcoin only.
Live free and stack sats,
Will
“Bitcoin is my stablecoin” — Matt Odell
What Is A.W. Block?
A.W. Block is a Bitcoin advisory firm focused on helping individuals and families navigate digital assets with clarity, structure, and conviction.
From digital asset recovery and estate-related discovery to long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy and advanced market cycle analysis, we provide disciplined guidance rooted in first principles—not hype.
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